Duckworth Lewis system needs a change for T20s

The Duckworth/Lewis method has to be revised keeping in mind Twenty20 tactics

Duckworth Lewis system needs a change for T20s

The Duckworth/Lewis method has to be revised keeping in mind Twenty20 tactics

First it was captain Paul Collingwood indulging in the very English pastime of blaming the weather for his team's woes after being torpedoed out of the T20 World Cup by the West Indies last Monday.

Sore: Paul Collingwood's England ended up on losing side after West Indies won the rain-interrupted crucial Super 8s match on Monday. PIC/AFP

"We will be reviewing the application of the Duckworth/Lewis method to Twenty20 during the summer when this competition is over," Frank Duckworth, co-inventor of the system along with Tony Lewis, told a London newspaper yesterday.

"Certainly people have suggested that we need to look very carefully and see whether in fact the numbers in our formula are totally appropriate for the Twenty20 game."

Duckworth, who is contracted along with his partner by the International Cricket Council, the sports governing body, to periodically update the system said: "We thought it was appropriate to wait until the end of this competition when we've got a lot more Twenty20 data on our database.

Slight changes
"If there are any changes these should be ready for the commencement of the southern hemisphere season on 1 October. My suspicion is there might be a slight difference but not very much, for instance that West Indian target of 80 might go to 81 or 82."

Meanwhile, the ICC has confirmed it would continue to use D/L unless a better alternative was invented.

According to a spokesman: "We're happy with it and obviously all the countries that are playing in the tournament are happy with it as well because they are using it domestically.

"It is generally accepted that D/L is the fairest method. If any of our member boards does have an alternative suggestion to Duckworth/Lewis our cricket committee will look at it, but it would be up to them to trial it in domestic cricket and bring it forward."

The spokesman is also quoted as confirming that the "programme is updated regularly to incorporate changes in the game. Scores now in international cricket are higher than they were in recent years and the system has been updated to include that."

However, the numbers used to determine the target score have not been updated for three years. The current D/L calculations fail to take into account the changes, such as faster scoring, which have taken place since 2006, when only six international Twenty20 matches had been played, after which another 108 have been played.

Calculations in the Duckworth/Lewis method are so convoluted mathematically that almost all international captains, coaches and managers unquestionably accept them because they find them incomprehensible.

The breakaway Indian Cricket League (ICL) tried out the Indian VJD method, which, interestingly, would have set the West Indies, a target of 94 from nine overs, as against the 80 for nine suggested by the D/L method.

Predictably, Duckworth/Lewis have lashed out at the Indian VJD system.

"He uses what we call the Delphic method. He tries to give people what they feel is a fair answer and he keeps fiddling his figures to do it," Duckworth fumed.

Too complex
"The ICC commissioned a review of all the methods about four years ago and independent analysis showed that D/L was more rigorous and more capable of accommodating changes in the game than any other. So we're confident we can hold up against all challengers."

Meanwhile, only Heaven u2013 and the likes of Albert Einstein and Isaac Newton u2013 would know how many matches have been decided by the erroneous calculations of a system that brooks almost no examination only because the game's law makers are, themselves, as ignorant of mathematics and algorithms as the millions of its fans the world over.

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