Will the Arvind Kejriwal-led party be able to create a space in Maharashtra’s already crowded political arena?
The members of AAP celebrate the party’s win in Punjab Assembly elections, at Mumbai Marathi Patrakar Sangh. File pic
In Bharatiya Janata Party’s record-breaking in Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party has tested itself to a fairly good success in terms of a voting percentage, if not the number of seats it claimed. As election data says, AAP dented the Congress more than the BJP. The AAP effect was bigger in the rural parts whereas it did not do much harm to the BJP’s urban vote bank. It was contrary to the expectations of the experts. But it did happen and heralds a new beginning for the AAP that was essentially seen as an urban party; though it had broken such a belief in Punjab where rural seats are more than the urban.
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One in many
That brings us to a question whether the AAP will be able to create a space for itself in Maharashtra where the local body polls are slated to be held soon next year, and the general and Assembly elections in 2024. In Maharashtra, the urban and rural population is almost the same.
Earlier, the AAP had contested a few big polls here, but returned with a big failure. Maharashtra is a multiplayer field where two forces on each side have been bonding into alliances or making it a four-way fight. The situation is going to alter again when the BJP ties up with the Shinde Sena, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s three parties come together or go in separate directions. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena hasn’t charted its course, while Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi is mulling to join hands with the Thackeray Sena which has been trying to get smaller parties along. The AIMIM will also be there, so will the Samajwadi Party to stake claim to the Muslim votes. The AAP has been a success in bipolar states like Gujarat and Delhi. Where will it stand in Maharashtra’s crowded political field?
Also read: Gujarat election results: Flipping Kutch and Saurashtra helped BJP to record win
Marathi pride
Many see the Gujarat poll outcome impacting the Mumbai and Thane municipal polls. The impact should be either way. The BJP’s sizable Gujarati vote bank is expected to consolidate further while the parties that love to use Marathi Asmita (pride) as a poll plank should be pitting it against Gujarati Asmita. Regional politics will be played hard. Uddhav Thackeray’s reaction to the Gujarat victory indicated what was in store. The MNS is another party that wears Marathi card on its sleeves and the Shinde Sena is one more that brands itself as a genuine custodian of Marathi Manoos.
The politics over the allegations of insults to revered personalities like Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, social reformer Mahatma Phule, some senior educationists and state border dispute with Karnataka is being played around the Marathi Asmita. It appears that Marathi Manoos will be divided more between many parties this time than the past instances.
Shinde initiative
When it comes to Mumbai’s makeover, it was former CM Vilasrao Deshmukh who took the first credit. Then came Devendra Fadnavis who revived the stalled projects, began many greenfield ones and pushed them hard. The city’s Metro network and Hindu Hrudaysamrat Balasaheb Thackeray Maharashtra Samruddhi Mahamarg are among Fadnavis’s initiatives. The new CM Eknath Shinde has taken up the baton, branding Mumbai makeover’s latest phase as his initiative. A specific mention in this regard has been made in the state government advertisements that were put across national media. Shinde has been trying to create a thick image among the Mumbaikars who have always known him as a man from Thane. However, he did not forget to mention in the media interviews and the speech he made in front of PM Narendra Modi in Nagpur on Sunday that it was Fadnavis who trusted him most as the minister in-charge of the expressway and encouraged him to take up the challenges. Fadnavis responded in the same vein, heaping praises on the then minister under his command and now his boss.
Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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