A relative from Bihar called me up a month ago and said there was a wave in favour of Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal. I quipped, “You must have spoken to only Muslims, who see double the number of people actually present in an Opposition rally.” Deep, indeed, runs the desire of Muslims to see the Bharatiya Janata Party voted out. “No, no,” he protested, claiming his conclusion was based on his conversations with acquaintances belonging to the Other Backward Classes who were not Yadav.

How many people could my relative have spoken to—20, at best? This number is insufficient to gauge the direction in which the political wind is blowing. Curious, I asked journalists in Bihar for their predictions. Eight to 10 for the RJD, one said. At least 15, another insisted. Curious, I asked an RJD leader whether the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would drop seats in Bihar. “It will, but don’t ask me to quantify it,” he chuckled. The NDA bagged 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar in 2019. 
A loss of, say, three or five seats would still be a loss, but that cannot dramatically alter the NDA’s national tally. It would, however, be significant if the NDA’s tally were to decline by 15 seats.