Is Thackeray reunion enough?

The reunion of Raj and Uddhav Thackeray has undoubtedly added spice drama and excitement to Mumbairsquos civic elections But symbolism and sentiment alone may not be enough to win the highstakes battle for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation BMC In todayrsquos Mumbai relying primarily on ldquoMarathi asmitardquo carries clear political limitsWhen Balasaheb Thackeray founded the Shiv Sena in 1966 Mumbai was a Marathimajority city and the ldquosons of the soilrdquo message resonated deeply Balasaheb enjoyed the undisputed leadership of Marathi speakers and near total backing from the community That political landscape no longer exists Mumbairsquos demographics have changed the Marathi vote mdash while still influential mdash is now divided among different political formations and Raj and Uddhav do not command the same automatic loyalty that the Sena patriarch once didMumbai itself has also changed as a political city It is no longer the stronghold that the Thackerays controlled between the late 1980s and 2012 Todayrsquos voter is more practical than emotional judging parties less on slogans and symbolism and more on everyday civic concerns like ldquogutter water and sadakrdquo Identitydriven politics which once mobilised crowds now struggles to answer daily governance failuresThis shift has created new political openings The BJP gains significantly from its ally the Eknath Shindeled Shiv Sena Shinde a former Shiv Sainik retains credibility among Marathi voters and can directly dent the Thackeray cousinsrsquo traditional base In many constituencies contests between Shindebacked candidates and those of Raj or Uddhav risk splitting the Marathi vote further turning what was once the Thackeraysrsquo core strength into a vulnerabilityDemographics underline this reality Mumbairsquos population stands at around 14 crore with well over 55 per cent being nonMarathispeaking residents About 103 crore people are eligible voters These numbers make one thing clear relying primarily on the Marathi identity especially when that vote is fragmented across multiple parties is unlikely to be enough to capture Asiarsquos richest civic bodyMumbai is not a oneidentity city It is home to large North Indian Gujarati Jain Marwari and Muslim communities Many voters from these groups do not instinctively see the Thackeray cousins as their first choice To them the alliance often appears more like a family reunion than a clearly articulated citywide plan for governanceAlliance choices therefore matter Because of the Maha Vikas Aghadirsquos strong antiBJP positioning many Muslim voters have backed Uddhav in recent years However by joining hands with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena a party often perceived as hostile to nonMarathi communities Uddhav risks unsettling sections of minority and migrant voters While the tieup may consolidate one segment it could simultaneously push others awayA similar challenge exists among North Indian Gujarati and other migrant communities who tend to prioritise stability businessfriendly governance and organisational strength This is where the BJP has invested steadily building local leadership and networks across communities In contrast the Thackeray reunion still struggles to project itself as a comprehensive solution for a diverse and complex city like MumbaiThe BJPrsquos adaptation to Mumbairsquos changing demographics is visible in electoral outcomes Of the cityrsquos 36 MLAs 13 are nonMarathi seven of whom belong to the BJP In the 2017 BMC elections 72 of the 227 corporators were nonMarathi with half elected on BJP tickets While retaining a Marathi pitch the party has systematically expanded beyond itCrucially even among Marathi voters loyalty to the Thackeray brand is no longer a given That era has passed Today the Marathi vote is divided between the Thackerays the BJPrsquos development narrative and parties driven by local leadership and personal equations Not all Marathi speakers are necessarily Thackeray loyalistsThe alliance also presents a dilemma for Raj Like Uddhav he too has something to lose For nearly 25 years the undivided Shiv Sena ruled the BMC yet core civic problems such as potholes flooding and footpath encroachments worsened rather than improved As Raj speaks of fixing Mumbai he cannot entirely disown this past without indirectly questioning his cousin and ally This limits the MNS chiefrsquos ability to project himself as a clean break from earlier failuresThese contradictions extend beyond leadership For years cadres of the two parties fought bitter political battles Old rivalries do not disappear overnight Some workers may cooperate others may not and voters are quick to sense confusion and lack of coordinationThe weakness is also visible on the campaign trail The Thackeray cousins remain the primary crowd pullers with the campaign heavily dependent on them alone Winning Mumbai today however is less like a onehero film and more like the Bollywood movie Lagaan where success depended on teamwork planning and discipline not just star powerIn contrast the BJP and the Shinde Sena have multiple field leaders capable of handling both large rallies and small corner meetings giving them greater reach and organisational depth Whether one agrees with its politics or not the BJP enters the contest with a clearer structure and stronger groundlevel machineryIn a city as diverse and complex as Mumbai no single identity can win an election on its own Ultimately Mumbai has repeatedly shown that it does not vote merely for political surnames It votes for whoever appears most capable of running the city That is the real test before the Thackeray cousins and the real risk they face in todayrsquos ldquoRajneetirdquoSanjeev Shivadekar is political editor midday He tweets SanjeevShivadekSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper