The realisation in rival political camps is that the way to Lok Sabha goes through Maharashtra. The NDA’s ambition to surpass the 400-seat mark depends on the state that elects 48 seats. The state politically separates the Modi-loving cow belt from the southern states that haven’t accepted the Bharatiya Janata Party like their northern counterparts. Here in Maharashtra, even if the Bharatiya Janata Party retains its 2019 tally, there is no guarantee that its alliance partners would also retain the numbers their respective undivided parties had won five years ago. Hence, I.N.D.I.A bloc’s hopes rely more on the weaklings in the NDA rather than the BJP. But the BJP has a counter to this. It is fully prepared not only in the seats it already has, but also in many others it wants the allies to part with. It is to be seen whether the allies convince the BJP to save them embarrassment and jibes from the rival factions that will be contesting a much higher number of seats.

In NDA, the BJP works like a well-programmed election machine. The same can’t be said about the allies in Maharashtra. Neither Eknath Shinde (chief of the EC-recognised Shiv Sena) nor Ajit Pawar (chief of the EC-recognised NCP) have the experience of leading elections of this size independently. They didn’t even have the opportunity to lead the local self-government elections that helped understand public opinion. It happened because, like local body polls, the by-polls to two Lok Sabha segments were not held. So, there has been no instrument available to fathom the depth of NDA and MVA’s influence in the changed political scenario of the state. For Shinde and Ajit, the Lok Sabha polls will be their first captaincy whereas their rival factions have senior leaders, some of them having 55 years of political experience. Even if they get to skipper their respective boats, the BJP will be dictating the course. Deliberate disobedience on the part of the allies will not be forgotten and forgiven by the big brother. No matter what, the BJP will not allow the allies a free run in the contest that will seat or unseat Narendra Modi from the PM’s throne. The BJP believes it should contest more seats than ever because it can win them. Will Shinde and Ajit concede to the overpowering BJP? Their recent posturing suggested their disagreement. Whether BJP gives up its claim to more seats or not, a lot will depend on how many contests are set up straight between the respective Sena and NCP factions.