Opposition’s goal: hate-proof polls

The Opposition is engaged in an admirable but futile endeavour to field a joint candidate against the Bharatiya Janata Party in as many constituencies as possible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections The Opposition should instead focus on ensuring that the next yearrsquos battle of ballots pivots around the people judging the BJPrsquos performance rather than being influenced by the politics of hate or the sudden occurrence of an event tragic or celebratory enough to sway the nation Emotions impair the mind from making a rational decisionThe futility of the Oppositionrsquos endeavour is evident from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections datamdashonly in 48 out of the 303 seats the BJP won did it secure less than the total votes polled by the parties placed second and third Thus a united Opposition would have reduced the BJP from 303 to 255 seats but could not have prevented it from coming to powerOut of the 48 seats 33 were located in just four statesmdashUttar Pradesh Odisha West Bengal and Telangana In West Bengal the Left will not align with the Trinamool for such a decision will have the former forfeit the entire Opposition space to the BJPThe BJD would be unwilling to dilute its regional identity by stitching a deal with the Congress more so as the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections are held simultaneously in Odisha As long as the BJD believes it can win Odisha on its own the party cares little about the BJP ruling the Centre The BJP has not after all raided and entangled BJD leaders in court casesClinging to its regional identity is an instinct with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi despite its new name in Telangana Vociferously opposed to the BJP earlier its leaders have been relatively muted ever since the BJP let loose the Enforcement Directorate against BRS leader K C Raorsquos family and friends There is just too much bad blood between Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Reddy and the Gandhis to work out a rapprochement and the statersquos another player the Telugu Desam Party has taken to wearing saffrontinted glassesThere are states in which an Opposition alliance is already in placemdashthink Bihar Maharashtra and Tamil Naadu Kerala does not make a quantitative difference to an Opposition alliance as the seats there are shared between the Left and the Congress Postelection both will together try to keep the BJP out of powerUttar Pradesh is a heartbreaker for the Opposition The Samajwadi Party Rashtriya Lok Dal and Bahujan Samaj Party formed what was considered a formidable alliance They together won only 15 out of the statersquos 80 seats They could have won seven more but for the presence of the Congress in the fray Mayawati has repeatedly said the BSP will go alone in 2024 The SPRLDCongress alliance lacks the mojo of the SPBSPRLDCongress combination which too would have failed to put the skids under the BJP in 2019 such was the magnitude of votes the BJP polledIn 2019 the BJP had a 5060 per cent of vote share in Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Delhi Maharashtra and Karnataka and a 6070 per cent vote share in Himachal Pradesh Gujarat and Uttarakhand Such mammoth polling for the BJP good enough for it to win a onetoone fight was triggered by the Pulwama terror attack and the retaliatory air strike the Modi government undertook against Pakistan Although these strikes were of uncertain efficacy the voters were emotionally too charged to judge rationally the Modi governmentrsquos performanceIndeed 2019 underscores that the Opposition must make the next yearrsquos hustings emotionproof Like waterproof products The BJP is already preparing to whip up the sentiments of Hindus evident from its plan to introduce a Uniform Civil Code and inaugurate Ayodhyarsquos Ram Temple in January 2024 Add to this the everexisting possibility of an occurrence packing as intense an impact as Pulwama had and the ensuing emotional upsurge could well return the BJP to power next year regardless of a united OppositionIn anticipation of such a scenario the Opposition should expend its energy to create a network of civil society organisations eager to save Indiarsquos social fabric from being torn apart Like two such groups in Karnataka did so earlier this yearThe Eddelu Karnataka or Wake Up Karnataka according to the Frontline magazine prepared and disseminated widely a booklet lsquo4 Years of BJPrsquos Rule Disillusionment Due to Dead Promisesrsquo circulated 80 videos and held 75 conferences to explain to the people why they should not vote for the BJP It persuaded Muslim voters to turn out in larger numbers than before and cautioned people against voting for weak nonBJP candidates as that would have split the antiBJP votes Over 5000 volunteers manned social media to inoculate people against hateThe Bahutva Karnataka or Pluralistic Karnataka did not overtly take sides but tellingly produced report cards on 15 vital sectors in which the BJPrsquos performance had been abysmal Building upon Rahul Gandhirsquos Bharat Jodo Yatra and the efforts of state Congress leaders the two groups ensured Karnatakarsquos voters were hateproofed to a large extent It is this model the Opposition needs to replicate for the 2024 electionsThe writer is a senior journalistSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper