Why Ukraine's spring offensive is yet to begin with summer just weeks away

For months Western allies have shipped billions of dollars worth of weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine with an urgency to get the supplies to Kyiv in time for an anticipated spring counteroffensiveNow summer is just weeks away While Russia and Ukraine are focused on an intense battle for Bakhmut the Ukrainian spring offensive has yet to beginLast week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said its been delayed because his country lacks enough Western weapons to succeed without suffering too many casualtiesWeather and training are playing a role too officials and defense experts say Officials insist the counteroffensive is coming Preliminary moves by Ukraine to set the conditions it wants for an attack have already begun a US official said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters A look at the factors delaying the counteroffensive and the preparations both sides are making in anticipation of it starting soonWEATHERA big part of the delay is the weather Its taken longer than expected for Ukraines frozen ground to thaw and dry due to an extended wet cold spring which has made it difficult to transition into an offensive Instead the ground has retained a deep mud that makes it more difficult for nontracked vehicles to operateThe mud is like a soup the official said You just sort of sink in itTRAININGIn the past few months tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained by the US and allies for the fight But the final Ukrainian battalion the US is currently training is just finishing its course now This final class brings the total number of Ukrainians the US has trained for this fight to more than 10700Those forces have learned not only field and medical skills but advanced combined arms tactics with the Stryker and Bradley armored fighting vehicles and Paladin selfpropelled howitzersIt also includes highly skilled forces who were trained to operate the Patriot missile defence system According to US Army EuropeAfrica more than 41000 additional Ukrainian troops have been trained through programs run by more than 30 partner nationsSoon a new phase will begin The US will start training Ukrainians on Abrams tanks at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany But the Ukrainians wont wait for the tank training to be finished before they launch their counteroffensive Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters in late AprilWEAPONS ARRIVALSIn just the past five months alone the US has announced it would send more than USD 14 billion in weapons and ammunition to Kyiv most of which is being pulled from existing stockpiles in order to get the supplies to Ukraine faster NATO and Western allies have responded too pledging billions in tanks armoured vehicles and air defence systemsAlso readWorld leaders converge for G7 with Ukraine war high on agendaBut a lot of that gear still hasnt arrived said Ben Barry a former British intelligence official who is now the senior land warfare fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies For example of the approximately 300 tank systems pledged iquest such as the Leopard 2 tanks promised by countries including Denmark the Netherlands Spain and Germany only about 100 have arrived Of the 700 or so pledged fighting vehicles such as British Marauders and US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles only about 300 have arrived he saidUkraine will also need enough ammunition on hand to sustain a higher tempo fight once the counteroffensive begins When it comes to the ammunition needed Ukraines chief military logistician will also have a strong say in when the army is ready to launch Barry said In just one munition the 155mm howitzer round Ukraine is firing between 6000 and 8000 rounds per day Ukrainian parliamentary member Oleksandra Ustinova told reporters in AprilCOUNTEROFFENSIVE CLUESBoth Russia and Ukraine are taking steps in anticipation of the counteroffensive Russia has approximately 200000 troops along a 1000kilometre 620mile battle line dug in using the same type of trench warfare tactics used in World War I a Western official said on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence mattersThese troops are not as highly trained as Russias initial invading force which sustained heavy casualtiesBut they are defended by ditches minefields and dragons teeth iquest above ground triangleshaped concrete barriers that make it difficult for tanks to moveMeanwhile Ukraine has begun shaping operations such as targeting Russias forward lines with longrange artillery fire That may indicate that Ukraine is about to push forward on that location or it could be a decoy to draw Russias attention from its actual planned first strike the official saidWhen Ukraine does try to punch through those lines whether in a limited area or a complex campaign carried out in multiple locations that will be the likely indicator the offensive has begun both Barry and the Western official saidBarry said when Ukrainian brigades start crossing into Russianheld territories and try to attack the first line of Russian defences thats going to be a dead giveaway I thinkThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever