‘Population control not about stats but welfare distribution’

Its expectedly scary when the United Nations states that by 2023 which is next year India will become the most populated country in the world taking over China Indiarsquos population of 14 billion people in 2023 is slated to grow to 166 billion in 2050But even though it brings to mind a dystopian world where everyone may be struggling and fighting it out for the countryrsquos resources most experts feel that the tide will turn soon And that we can make a go at itmdashall 14 billion of usPoonam Muttreja executive director Population Foundation of India says that India is in fact experiencing a slowdown in population growth and a decline in fertility rates She cites the Census data on population that shows that the decadal growth rate during 20012011 had reduced to 177 per cent from 215 per cent over 19912001 Similarly the Total Fertility Rate TFR has been decreasing in India going down from 34 in 199293 to 20 in 201921 National Family Health Survey This indicates that the country is on course to achieving population stabilisation ldquoHowever our population will continue to grow for some time due to a high proportion of young persons in the population Today every fifth person in India is an adolescent 1019 years and every third is a young person 1024 years Even if this cohort of young population produces only one or two children per couple it will still result in a quantum increase in population size The numbers will stabilise as the population ages which as per current projections will happen around 2050rdquoIn 2019 Mumbai topped the list of the worldrsquos most populated cities with 76790 persons per square mile Census data shows that the decadal growth rate during 20012011 had reduced to 177 per cent from 215 per cent over 19912001 PicGetty ImagesA study by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation IHME University of Washington Seattle published in The Lancet on July 14 2020 indicates that India is expected to reach its peak population of 16 billion by 2048 ldquoIndia is also projected to have a continued steep decline in Total Fertility Rate which will reach 13 The total population will drop to 11 billion in 2100rdquo Muttreja shares in an email interview adding that ldquoWe are experiencing a demographic transition and our population growth will slow down as long as we stay on the right trackrdquoAlso Read Which textbook is rightIndia started its journey to tackle its population in 1952 when it became one of the first developing countries to come up with a statesponsored family planning programme A population policy committee was established in 1952 but the policies were not successful In 1956 a Central Family Planning Board was set up and its focus was on sterilisation In 1976 the Government of India announced the first National Population Policymdashincreasing the minimum legal marriageable age for boys and girls to 21 and 18 respectively and providing monetary incentives for employing birth control were some of the measures adopted Nearly 25 years later the National Population Policy of 2000 addressed the unmet needs for contraception healthcare infrastructure and health personnel and provided integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child healthcare The mediumterm objective of the NPP 2000 was to reduce the TFR to replacement levels by 2010 The TFR was to be 21 children per woman The longterm objective was to achieve a stable population by 2045 at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth social development and environmental protectionDr AL Sharada heads Population First a social impact organisation that works for women empowerment gender equality and community mobilisation She says that though Indiarsquos fertility rate has come down certain states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are still falling behind At present UP Madhya Pradesh Karnataka Uttarakhand Tripura and Assam are considering laws to control the population growth Last year the UP Law Commission submitted a draft of the Uttar Pradesh Population Bill to incentivise families to follow a twochild norm UP has a population of 22896 million which has grown by 1472 per cent since 2011 ldquoThis has to be tackled as far as their social development is concernedrdquo said Sharada She is not a proponent of strict policies like Chinarsquos onechild policy which limited most Chinese families to one child eachmdashthe policy was implemented nationwide by the Chinese government in 1980 and ended in 2016 However the problem is the lens through which we view the population issue she says ldquoWhen we think of population we often blame the people living in slums But those children actually have a lower carbon footprint since they recycle and use secondhand goods A privileged kid born in say south Mumbai could have a lifetime thats more detrimental for the environment So itrsquos not as much about numbers but about equal distribution of welfare and resourcesrdquoDr Al Sharada Sayeed Unisa Prof KS James Krishnamurthy Srinivasan and Poonam MuttrejaSurpassing China should be the least of our concerns says Professor Sayeed Unisa head of the Department of Fertility and Social Demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences IIPS Deonar ldquoWhat matters now is how we handle our population much like how China managed itrdquo Unisa gives the example of how China has turned small towns and villages into industrial towns so that the population doesnrsquot move to the cities and since they are educated and employed they are better equipped to take decisions like birth control and having lesser children ldquoThey are also producing most of the worldrsquos plastic goods We need to utilise the energies of our population and not see them as a threat We need to educate the population to highlyskilled levels and not just in fields like medicine but manufacturing People are not threats but assetsrdquoBut how does one tap into such a large resource India is ldquothe youngest country in the worldrdquo with more than 62 per cent of the population in the working age group of 15 to 59 years and more than 54 per cent of the total population below 25 years of age Krishnamurthy Srinivasan the author of Population Concerns in India Shifting Trends Policies and Programmes says that there are three ways to help India at this point ldquoFirstly educate the women and give them proper support through varied policies Also empower them politically Secondly letrsquos look at factors that unite us rather than divide We canrsquot compare between us or communities For example the Muslim community is also making great headway in stabilising the TFR Thirdly all children should be welcome So prenatal medical support should be given to mothers And later children should be given educational opportunitiesrdquoMuttreja says that ldquoexpanding the basket of contraceptives in our public health system so that people have more optionsrdquo is a good step forward According to NFHS5 approximately 22 million Indian women want to stop or delay childbearing but do not have access to contraceptives ldquoOur focus should be on providing women access to family planning services We need to give comprehensive sexuality education to all adolescents ensure social and economic development policies are gender inclusive and address and change behaviour patterns for population stabilisation What we need to be concerned about is the prevalent and widespread deprivation inequality and social and gender discrimination in access to health education and em ployment opportunitiesrdquo she saysPatience is going to be key feels Professor KS James director and senior professor at IIPS ldquoThe population is going to rise for the next 3040 years as people in the reproductive age will get married and have babiesrdquo ldquoBut we will reach a plateau If the fertility rate is 21 now in 30 years it will be 0 What we have to figure is the imbalance between the states and population distributionrdquo says James adding that when the population policies were enacted they were enforced among the lower middle class and the poor ldquoNow they have two kids and although aspirational they are not skilled But their kids will be Wait 30 years India will changerdquo16Projected population of India in billions by 2048 from current 1412 billion Drop in fertility rate will make it slide to 11 billion by 2100 according to PFI62Percentage of population in the working age group of 15 to 59 years