This dust won’t settle

A little rain wind and lightning isnrsquot enough to rattle the average Mumbaikar Wersquove seen it allmdashbut on Monday last week May 13 when funnels of wind and dust spiralled around us we took noticeSunil Kamble Director IMD Indian Meteorological Department Mumbai clarifies that though Mondayrsquos visitor looked like a dust storm it was just a thunderstorm with accessories ldquoAs there was a lot of dust in the atmosphere it mimicked a dust stormrdquo he explained ldquoA true dust storm is not accompanied by rains and continues over two to three daysrdquoThe wind speeding up to 80 kmph at some places and 65 kmph at others picked up loose soil and dust and took it along for a whirlIn January 2022 dust storm swirled over Mumbai for three days It was headed for Gujarat and Haryana but took a surprising detour to the city to try its luck in Bollywood perchance and left Mumbai breathlessCricket lovers at Oval Maidan playing right around the time that the thunderstorm this week PicAtul KambleNASArsquos Earth observatory said in its report ldquoA substantial dust storm enveloped the Arabian Sea Plumes of desert dust affected populated areas around the basin as winds carried the particles over Karachi Mumbai and numerous other cities and degraded air quality Dust arose from three different countries but merged into a large plume that cast a pall over much of the Arabian Sea According to Hiren Jethva a Morgan State University scientist based at NASArsquos Goddard Space Flight Center the size of the plume was ldquoquite remarkablerdquo as was its unusual pathrdquoThe cityrsquos AQI Air Quality Index hovered at Severe from January 21 to 23 the report addsNow recall how the end days in the scifi movie Intertellar begin with loose dust blanketing everything and eventually killing babies off with respiratory diseases and crops too To the point that finding a planet to flee to becomes a global priority ApocalypticAchtungDr Sunil Kamble Lubaina Rangwala Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra and Dr Anjal PrakashA report by the Asian and Pacific Centre For The Development Of Disaster Information Management APCDDIM called Sand and dust storm risk assessment in Asia and the Pacific found that in the year 2019 Mumbai saw dust concentrations higher than 50 microgm3 which is categorised as Poor air qualityLubaina Rangwala believes lack of acceptance that extreme climate events in Mumbai have been increasing has resulted in the situation that left 16 persons dead and 174 injured this Monday The urban planner and architect is Programme Head for Urban Development and Resilience with the Sustainable Cities and Transport team at World Resource Institute WRIldquoThe BMC and all authorities will have to climateproof all city infrastructure for all kinds of climatic eventsrdquo she saysRangwala feels that the deluge of 2006 revealed how unprepared the government is for natural disasters ldquoThe 267 deluge was unprecedented and this led to reviewing the Brimstowad Report to overhaul Mumbairsquos stormwater management network However over the years the cityrsquos focus on disaster preparedness has been largely to combat floodsrdquo she points out ldquoldquoWe arenrsquot taking into account climate proofing our infrastructure for heatwaves erratic and more frequent storms landslides and other natural disastersrdquoDelhi experienced a thunderstorm around the same time as Mumbai The timing has left many scientist wondering if there is corelation PicGetty ImagesOn the Monday of the dust storm the city recorded temperatures of 375 degrees adding to the high moisture the city had been experiencing A thunderstorm was inevitable feels Kamble ldquoHigh temperature is the key ingredient in thunderstormsrdquo he says ldquoIt is usual for Mumbai to experience thunderstorms but yes global warming and those high temperatures increased the forcefulnessrdquoHowever not everyone thinks the end is nigh Rajesh Kapadia for one who runs the weather forecast website Vagaries ldquoI do not believe that Mondayrsquos storm was due to climate changerdquo says the South Mumbai resident ldquoIt was a normal thunderstorm and the first of the monsoon We had more thunderstorms in April last year But I admit Mumbai is facing the phenomenon of urban heatingrdquoThis year Moodyrsquos RMS a risk management company that evaluates and manages risks of natural and manmade disasters says the metropolisrsquo risk mitigation costs will jump by 126 per cent this year This is due to heightened urban heat stress in a moderate emissions scenario They came to the conclusion after analysing data collected in 2023 Simply put the rising heat of Mumbai has increased the risk of the city experiencing a disaster by 126 per centmdashnaturalor manmadeSo what happened on Monday was nothing out of the ordinary ldquoIt was peculiarrdquo admits Dr Kaustav Chakravati Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ldquoWhich is why we have made note of it It isnrsquot that Mumbai has not experienced thunder or dust storms but we are unable to understand what caused such high wind speed We are currently examining the data and are likely to know more by next weekrdquoChakravarty has been studying Mumbairsquos extreme weather changes for the last decade or so ldquoThe changes are sharp and dramatic but we cannot for sure say that dust has increased And about the particular event of Monday it can only be described as a windy thunderstormrdquo he saysThe lack of data is unmissable a fact spotted by the In the executive summary of the same report it mentions ldquoLack of data presented one of the most prominent challenges throughout the process of conducting this risk assessment Several types of sand and dust storm hazard are poorly accounted for and indepth risk assessments for sand and dust storm events across multiple sectors at national and local levels are neededrdquoAnjal Prakash PhD Clinical Associate Professor Research and Research Director of Bharti Institute of Public Policy Indian School of Business expresses that the thunderstorms are going nowhere ldquoThe frequency of recent thunderstorms like those observed in Mumbai on May 13 is expected to rise due to climate change Warmer temperatures increase atmospheric moisture fuelling more intense and frequent stormsrdquo He furthers what an unstable weather pattern only gives impetus to storms ldquoChanging weather patterns and shifts in atmospheric circulation can contribute to the amplification of thunderstorm activity in certain regions Urbanisation and land use changes may also play a role in altering local weather patterns Combined these factors indicate a likelihood of more frequent and intense thunderstorms in the future posing challenges for urban infrastructure and resilience effortsrdquo he addsHave and can civic infrastructure do anything against the weather that is erratic and hits us without any warning Maybe we can says Prakash ldquoCivic authorities can enhance infrastructure resilience to high wind speeds through stringent building codes windresistant construction techniques and retrofitting existing structures Incorporating green infrastructure and advanced stormwater management systems mitigates wind impact and prevents floodingrdquo Another vital gap in our current preparedness seems to be the gap in agencies and lack of public awareness ldquoAdvanced warning systems and public education promote preparedness and reduce risksCollaboration with meteorological agencies and neighbouring municipalities facilitates coordinated responses Investing in research resilient projects and community engagement fosters longterm adaptation By combining engineering solutions policy interventions and community involvement authorities can bolster infrastructure against high winds minimising the impact of severe weather events for safer and more resilient communitiesrdquo he addsMrutyunjay Mohapatra Director General Meteorology at IMD says the instability of the atmosphere and transfer of dust from Saudi Arabia and Oman have contributed to Indiarsquos greatest dust storms ldquoBut in Mumbai the thunderstorm on Monday was due to an unstable atmosphererdquo he says ldquoDust and thunderstorms are not so frequent in Maharashtra We cannot blame climate change because it was random and itrsquos hard to pinpoint a trendrdquoHowever Mohapatra does agree that the rise in temperature does increase frequency and intensity of thunderstorms ldquoBut that doesnrsquot mean that Mumbai will see an increase in them again it is hard to pinpoint a trendrdquo he reiteratesBut Rangwala holds firm ldquoWe need to assume that this is not a oneoff event and work towards a holistic plan to address infrastructure vulnerabilities to increasing climate risks Having an all weatherproofrdquoNaturersquos death tollThe National Crime Records Bureau NCRB 2022 report on accidental deaths and suicides in India revealed that in 2021 8060 accidental deaths were caused by forces of nature such as lightning heat stroke exposure to cold floods landslides and torrential rains