Overall trend might change in September-October if citizens do not behave responsibly during the festive season, caution experts
A health worker takes a swab sample at CSMT on Monday. Pic/Ashish Raje
Stressing that there is no room for complacency over the declining trend of Covid cases in the city, doctors have asked citizens to be cautious ahead of the festival season. “Cases have started trickling in. Already hospitalisation is going up. Last week, we only had three cases but right now, we have at least 15,” said Dr Kedar Toraskar, a critical care specialist at Wockhardt Hospital.
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Calling the rise in the number of hospitalised patients a warning sign, Dr Toraskar said, “We are unlocking and expecting the third wave by mid-September-October. We have to be very cautious. We are keeping our fingers crossed that the third wave won’t be as bad as the first and second wave.” He said the Delta variants are around. “We are seeing what is happening abroad. We should not be complacent. Follow wearing a mask, hand hygiene and social distancing. And ramp up the vaccination,” said Dr Toraskar, who is also a part of the state task force for Covid-19.
The city’s TPR had dipped below 1 per cent, a first in the second wave, on July 29. It rose from 0.53 per cent on August 19 to 0.90 per cent on August 22 and .91 per cent on Monday. Dr Om Shrivastav, an infectious disease expert and member of the state Covid task force, said he too has seen a jump in hospitalisation in past week. “Hospitalisation has definitely gone up in the last few days. We have seen a 30 per cent rise in admissions. We have to be watchful on where this is heading. We have been discussing unlocking in a phased manner. It has to be a gradual and slow process,” he said.
Also read: Covid-19: Imminent third wave in Sept-Oct, say experts
Dr Shrivastav stressed the fact that the future of handling Covid-19 lies in ramping up vaccination and genomic studies. “In India right now, we are doing 0.7 or 0.9 per cent of genome sequencing. That has to go up. The importance of genome sequencing has to be realised as it is going to pave the way for any kind of future therapies for Covid-19,” he emphasised.
Dr Avinash Supe, executive director of Hinduja Hospital, Khar, said people are dropping their guard and it is a worrying trend. “In Mumbai, we are doing a lot of testing and comparatively there are fewer cases, which is good. But people are being careless and not wearing masks especially in peripheral parts of Mumbai. That’s my first worry,” he said. With Ganesh festival around the corner, Dr Supe said, people from Mumbai visiting their native places is another big concern.
“During Ganesh festival, people visit their native places like Pune, Sindhudurg, Sangli, Ratnagiri, Konkon. These areas have the highest number of patients and deaths. Visiting these places and not following Covid-appropriate norms will increase the risk of them getting variants in Mumbai. We might see a surge in Covid-19 cases by mid-September,” he said.
Dr Supe said the public need to be cautious and responsible. “There are two types of responsibilities. One is individual and the other is community responsibility. Individual responsibility includes wearing a mask, observing hand hygiene, following social distancing, etc. whereas community responsibility is to limit your time and leave a place if it’s crowded. Sensitise people about how crowds are responsible for being superspreaders, follow government messages, support people, quarantine and vaccinate. These are shared responsibilities. The worry is about how we behave in the next one month,” added Dr Supe.
.53%
City’s test positivity rate on Aug 19
.91%
City’s test positivity rate on Monday
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