Who’s afraid of swine flu-II?

City doctors say reports of a more fatal second wave of H1N1 virus are premature and exaggerated

Who's afraid of swine flu-II?

City doctors say reports of a more fatal second wave of H1N1 virus are premature and exaggerated

Pune's epidemiologists say reports warning citizens of a second wave of H1N1, which warn of more fatalities than the first, are premature and vastly exaggerated.

"The first phase is yet to get over. Once, the epidemic reaches a peak, people will develop herd immunity.

That's when the number of cases will really go down. Only after that will the virus try to change its form (see Virus mutation box) and the second wave will begin," said Dr J P Muliyil, a senior epidemiologist at Christian Medical College, Vellore.

Dr Ashok Mehta, joint director of health services and in-charge of swine flu monitoring cell, said the number of cases, the pattern of fresh cases and deaths remain the same. "People in Pune and other metros who have already been exposed to the virus have developed a measure of immunity against them. During the second phase of the epidemic, people in these cities are likely to be more protected than those in smaller towns where virus has not arrived yet," said Mehta.

15% immune
According to Devendra Shirole, president of General Practitioners Association, "Doctors, nurses and other citizens were tested by the National Institute of Virology recently. The results revealed that 15 per cent of the sample population was immune to swine flu. There is no reason to panic, second wave or not," said Shirole.

Dr Nitin Abhyankar, chest physician at Jehangir and Deenanath Mangeshkar hospitals, said that the immune system of Indians is in better shape than those living in western countries. "A percentage of our population has already developed immunity to H1N1, though many may not know about it," said Abhyankar.