Who says UK recession is over, ask bankers

Data from a leading UK think-tank suggests that the bitter recession that has been crippling Britain has ended, but prominent bankers and people from the world of finance here seem to be taking it with a pinch of salt.

According to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research with output in the UK growing 0.1 per cent in May and 0.2 per cent in April, Martin Weale, its director, said that these figures suggest the country is "through the worst".

However, a finance broker says, "It's a bit of a false dawn. We're seeing an uplift, but it's just confidence coming from the first quarter of the year.

Retail sales are down and there's definitely a scarcity of jobs. The positive signs just aren't there right now."

A banker with ABN Amro says, "When you look at how the market stands and when you look at manufacturing, you realise it is far from over.
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I'd say we've got another year and a half to go. There are some good trends in the housing market, but I can't see things coming back for a while."

Another banker said, "The end is when you see jobs becoming available again and when people start spending more. I don't see any of that happening at the moment."

1.18 lakh on dole

Meanwhile, according to figures produced by the Local Government Association in England and Wales, the number of managers and professionals on the dole has risen by 150 per cent in the past year.

There are now more than 1,18,000 white-collar workers claiming the Job-seekers Allowance up from 46,700 in the past 12 months.

According to real estate agency Knight Frank's Prime Central London index, the drop in Central London house prices was 20.1 per cent compared to May last year.

Meanwhile, the UK Housing Market Survey has found a 16 per cent jump in lending to people buying a new home in April, adding to evidence that the housing market was beginning to stabilise.

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