Deaths could be reduced by 30 per cent if Americans consistently wear masks, researchers from IHME said
A medical worker takes a nasal swab sample from a student to test for COVID-19 at the Brooklyn Health Medical Alliance urgent care pop-up testing site, as infection rates spike in New York City. Pic/AFP
Deaths due to the novel Coronavirus in the US are expected to reach almost 4,00,000 by February 1, 2021, according to a new forecast. The new forecast released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, revealed that peak daily deaths in the country in January 2021 will be over 2,200, and the total would reach 3,94,693 by February 1. If mandates ease, the death toll would increase to over 5,02,000 by February 1.
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If masks are universally adopted, which would mean about 95 per cent of people consistently wearing them, the IHME predicts about 3,15,800 deaths. Expanding mask use to the level seen in Singapore can decrease cumulative deaths, saving 79,000 lives between now and that date, said the IHME. The IHME model also projected that some 1,13,199 additional hospital beds will be required by February 1 to deal with the heavy inflow of infected patients.
The US has witnessed a recent resurgence in the number of daily COVID-19 cases, with around 40,000 new cases per day since mid-September. Several states in the Midwest have begun the fall and winter surge, according to the IHME. Daily deaths are over 4 per million in North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Florida. "The fall/winter surge timing in each state will depend on actions by individuals and the speed of reaction to the surge by different governors or other local government officials," said the IHME in a report.
UK Prime Minister mulls England lockdown next week
London: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is considering putting England on a month-long lockdown next week in the wake of a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to official documents. The documents suggest that the new "stay at home" order could be announced tomorrow, but schools, colleges and universities will be exempted. It said that unless additional restrictions were introduced, the UK was on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave. SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) member Professor Gabriel Scally said that a national lockdown was inevitable, as the "R number is still far too high. Everyone knows that these tiers are not working".
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