India entitled to WC favouritism

If any team is entitled to outright favouritism for the World Cup, it's India

India entitled to WC favouritism

If any team is entitled to outright favouritism for the World Cup, it's India

Tendulkar in Bangalore on Saturday. pic/afp

Unlike the 2007 tournament where it was simply a matter of; "Who'll meet Australia in the final?" this time the defending champions are not favourites.

If any team is entitled to outright favouritism, it's joint host India.

India has an unbelievably strong batting line-up with the likes of little maestro Sachin Tendulkar and the Delhi-destroyer Virender Sehwag. If youngsters Virat Kohli and Suresh Raina also play to their potential that's a whole lot of firepower and it's anchored by the cool captain, Mahendra Singh Dhoni.

India's chance
India's perfectly equipped to both set huge targets as well as chase them down. They're also well-stocked with spinners, both front-line and part-time. The emergence of R Ashwin takes some of the load off Harbhajan and while Yuvraj Singh's batting has waned lately, his bowling has prospered.

The big impediments to India winning the trophy for the first time since 1983 are their inconsistent pace attack, which relies heavily on the fragile Zaheer Khan and the massive weight of fan expectation. No team has ever won the trophy playing in a home final but India has a great chance of breaking that sequence.

The Australian selectors have gambled by basing the attack around aggressive fast bowlers. They continued in this vein by choosing an attacking off-spinner ufffd Jason Krezja, to replace the injured Nathan Hauritz. How far Australia progress will depend to a degree on Ricky Ponting adapting his captaincy to constantly seek wickets as the ultimate mode of containment.

Australia will also have to bat well, especially when the spin bowlers are operating and this is where they'll miss the versatility of Michael Hussey.

A meeting with England at the quarter-final stage is the most likely outcome and following their recent comprehensive triumph in the CB series, Australia should be confident of that match-up.u00a0

For once South Africa has a balanced attack rather than one heavily reliant upon seamers. They also have a strong batting line-up ufffd not quite as powerful as India but close.

They have the team to win but do they have the temperament?
As skipper, Graeme Smith has to utilise his varied attack and also find a way to keep his team from tensing up in the big matches. History is not on his side.

Murali's perfect send-off
The last time the tournament was played on the sub-continent in 1996, Sri Lanka won the trophy. They'd love to repeat that performance in order to give their champion Muttiah Muralitharan the perfect send off. Sri Lanka has a steady attack; strong in spin bowling but one good pace bowler short of dominant. The batting, headed by Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, is solid but lacks a genuine middle-order power threat. If Tillakaratne Dilshan fires at the top of the order that won't be such a problem.

Whichever team finishes top of Group A, will meet either the West Indies or Bangladesh in the quarter-finals. This is a major incentive and means the Australia v Sri Lanka contest is crucial.

This year looked like England's big chance to win their first World Cup but their batsmen played spin bowling poorly in Australia. That's not likely to improve on the sub-continent and with Eoin Morgan injured, the England batting relies even more on the erratic Kevin Pietersen.

Strategically, Andrew Strauss needs to be more aggressive as a captain and also demote Matt Prior to the middle-order. Ian Bell plays both pace and spin well and can make big scores; he's a better alternative as an opener. Of those five teams, England is the most likely to miss the semi-finals. It's shaping up as Sri Lanka versus South Africa in one and Australia versus India in the other.

Absorbing finale
Strength versus subtlety in both encounters is an enticing and competitive mix. Hopefully this will lead to an absorbing final, which would be a vast improvement on the 2007 schemozzle in the Caribbean that masqueraded as the pinnacle of the one-day game.

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