Mumbai can soon be in eye of the storm and any safety plan might be inadequate

Mumbairsquos recent resurgence from the extremely severe cyclonic storm Tauktae bears an uncanny resemblance in terms of sheer luck to June 2020 when Cyclone Nisarga narrowly missed the island city leaving neighbouring coastal areas to bear the bruntWith Mumbai reeling under the impact of climate change the question that environmentalists and climate scientists are asking is whether the city is prepared to brave the storm if and when it hits ldquoOur department has noticed that the periodicity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and over the Arabian Sea seems to have increased over the last few yearsrdquo said Manisha Mhaiskar principal secretary of Maharashtrarsquos Environment and Climate Change department ldquoStudies indicate that this is primarily due to an increase in the surface sea temperaturesrdquoMahesh Palawat and Rishi AggarwalBut Mhaiskar says that the impending danger is not from cyclones alone ldquoWhen people spoke of climate change earlier everyone thought that it was a remote phenomenonmdashlike ice melting in Antarctica But what we are trying to tell people of our state is that climate change isnrsquot remote it is happening right here at our doorstep Moreover the increase in erratic climate events which could be in the form of a cyclone one year heavy rain the next and drought after that are impacting us alreadyrdquo she says She feels that all states would need to work together to face this new realityAlso ReadCyclone Yaas likely to intensify into very severe cyclonic storm IMDCyclone is cityrsquos realityMahesh Palawat vice president Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather said that while a cyclone has never directly hit Mumbai the possibility of such an occurrence cannot be ruled out in the near futureldquoNisarga made a landfall south of Mumbai and Tauktae made a landfall in the north of Mumbai over Gujarat so there is a very high probability that if any cyclone occurs in the South Central Arabian Sea it may reach Mumbairdquo he saysPawat also echoes Mhaiskarrsquos sentiments on the increased periodicity in cyclones developing over the Arabian Sea ldquoEarlier we were seeingmdashwith a few exceptionsmdashthat most of the cyclones heading in the north east direction towards Gujarat were fizzling out even before reaching the coast They were weakening into lowpressure areas or depressions which is why their impact was negligible But now with sea surface temperatures increasing a very severe cyclone reaching Mumbai and its suburbs as well as certain parts of Dahanu and Gujarat is quite likelyrdquoPalawat adds a word of caution for Mumbai owing to the cityrsquos complex structuremdashone that includes chawls built on multistorey stilts as well as numerous old dilapidated buildings ldquoDue to highrise buildings in densely populated areas and the number of slums in the city it will be difficult for a team to evacuate people Even if the damage to population and manpower can be controlled the structural damage will definitely be tough to containrdquoThe BMC admits that Mumbai got lucky this week and last year as well ldquoNow the question thatrsquos at the back of our mind is what would happen if a cyclone does hit Mumbai directly The city cannot escape every timerdquo said Mahesh Narvekar director disaster management department BMCNarvekar said that during Tauktae wind speeds of up to 114 kmph were recorded However it was limited to around 70 kmph over Mumbai ldquoEven at this wind speed more than 2500 trees fell and around 20 to 25 walls of small compounds and hutments collapsed But if the wind speeds reach 120130 kmph as it does during an extremely severe cyclonic storm Mumbaimdashwhere 5060 per cent of the population lives in informal unengineered structuresmdashmight be in a tough spot Evacuating around 6070 lakh people is not a jokerdquo added NarvekarWards developing a planIs the BMC then working on a contingency plan Narvekar said that planning has been underway since Cyclone Ockhi hit the coastal parts of India in 2017While they have identified and mapped slum clusters or seafront areas which are most vulnerable to these cyclones even those residing in dilapidated buildings are currently at risk ldquoWe have asked every ward to develop a plan and identify the vulnerable areas in their ward and where the affected people should be shifted to in case they need to be evacuatedrdquoBut just shifting them will not serve the purpose After shifting they will have to be relocated and resettled ldquoWe will also need to protect their livelihood as well We are preparing a microplan for that We have already circulated a template of the plan to every administrative ward officerrdquoWhen asked about the structural damage that Mumbai could experience in case it is hit directly by a cyclone Narvekar said ldquoOne cannot stop a natural disaster from occurring There is no mechanism wherein one can minimise the impact of winds But all future development projects must be built according to the National Building Code of 2016 All buildings that have come up after 2016 should be cyclone resistantrdquo he said Environmentalist Rishi Aggarwal references author Amitav Ghoshrsquos nonfiction work The Great Derangement Climate Change and the Unthinkable pointing out how commute change will eventually induce greater cyclones in the Arabian Sea ldquoHe Ghosh has described very clearly how the occurrence and intensity of such cyclones are going to start playing havocrdquo he saidIn the book Ghosh had revealed that while many of Mumbairsquos tall buildings have large glass windows few if any are reinforced ldquoIn a cyclone these exposed expanses of glass will have to withstand not just hurricane strength winds but also flying debris Many of the dwellings in Mumbairsquos informal settlements have roofs made of metal sheets and corrugated iron cycloneforce winds will turn these and the thousands of billboards that encrust the city into deadly projectiles hurling them with great force at the glasswrapped towers that soar above the cityrdquo Ghosh wrote in the bookAggarwal says that from a cyclone intensity pointofview Tauktae was the worst cyclone Mumbai has ever experiencedmdashespecially in terms of wind intensity ldquoAlso over the last three years there is a clear difference in the way we are seeing monsoons wherein we experience dry spells throughout the monsoon with the bulk of the rain taking place during very few intense periods which in turn leads to chaos and flooding on the streets But the rest of the time apart from these spells we are hardly getting any rainrdquolsquoKid dies of electrocutionrsquoA sevenyearold child of a tribal family in Vasai became the first victim of electrocution after he accidentally touched a wire from an electric pole that had collapsed when Cyclone Tauktae hit the region The incident took place on Saturday evening when the child identified as Mayur Padekar had stepped out to play Additional Executive Engineer of MSEDCL Vasai Urban Subdivision Mahesh Madhavi and his team members rushed to the spot ldquoThe power supply had been disconnected after the electric pole collapsed We are still trying to ascertain how the down wire became liverdquo Madhavi added The police have registered an accidental death report Diwakar Sharma