From frightening numbers and a healthcare crisis in June-July, how strict measures and increased testing helped flatten the curve by December
BMC still tests people at stations. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi
Nine months of the pandemic saw many highs and lows of COVID through 2020. The virus, which arrived in March and showed its true might after restrictions were lifted in June, now has a limited reach, though the threat isn't over yet. While the number of cases and the Test Positivity Rate (TPR) are the lowest since May, authorities are gearing up to face the new strain of the virus and vaccine implementation.
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Arriving passengers get tested at Mumbai Central on Wednesday. Pic/Bipin Kokate
There are 8,178 active COVID-19 cases in the city. Average daily deaths have decreased from 52 to less than 10, the number of tests has tripled and the TPR is below 4 per cent from 28 per cent in June.
"Cases, deaths have come down but the pandemic remains. Social distancing, wearing a mask and frequent handwashing are the keys to prevent transmission," said Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner. He added that from the passengers arriving from UK who tested positive, half have recovered, which is a good sign.
Early in the pandemic, cases were lower due to either a strict lockdown or low testing. Till April end, only 7,625 cases had been reported with 2.01 lakh tests. Cases started increasing, with 33,252 new ones in May.
Still, the city opened up in June and until August, average monthly cases were 34,000. The curve sharpened after Ganpati festival with there being 34,136 active cases on September 18. High number of cases continued to be reported in October and, wiser after Ganpati festival, the BMC tightened measures post-Diwali.
"There was testing at all major railway stations and general doctors were kept in the loop for symptomatic cases," said a BMC officer. However, the cases did not increase again. This month, the daily average has been 628, as opposed to May's daily average of over 1,000.
The highest number of deaths were reported in June - 3,310, but many were from May and April. The average monthly deaths were 1,444 till September and rose to 1,606 in October. "Cases started declining in the second week of October, but it took two weeks for that to reflect it in the mortalities," said a doctor from the death audit committee. This month, average daily deaths are less than 10. Of the 11,088 city deaths, 9,566 were of those aged 50 years and above.
Tests and positivity rate
Initially, with Kasturba hospital being the only centre for testing, it witnessed long queues. Amid a shortage of RT-PCR kits, the corporation restricted testing. The situation changed completely after August with antigen tests, but this time people were avoiding them. When the pandemic was at its peak, there was an average of 7,000 tests per day. Antigen tests increased it with 11,797 daily tests in September and 14,907 in December.
The TPR, positives per 100 tests, was 20 per cent till May-end when 40,877 cases were detected from 2.01 lakh tests since March. This month, it is 4 per cent as 18,902 cases have been detected from conducting 4.17 lakh tests (both RT-PCR and antigen).
14,907
Average number of daily tests in December
MUMBAI'S MONTHLY COVID REPORT
Month Cases Deaths
Till April end 7,625 295
May 33,252 1,024
June 37,831 3,310*
July 36,638 1,766
August 31,601 1,295
September 60,547 979
October 50,914 1,606
November 25,776 544
Till December 28 18,092 275
*Reconciliation of deaths in earlier months
The number of cases may slightly vary due to reconciliation of data. In December, more than 10,000 cases were removed from total cases due to duplicates or for being out of Mumbai
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